Ohio’s state budget is in the history books. That means it’s time for the next big political item on state leaders’ to-do list: redrawing Ohio’s congressional map.
Under Ohio’s current map, Republicans hold 10 congressional districts while Democrats hold five. But three of Democrats’ seats are in districts that are competitive, thanks to the mix of voters who live in them. So Republicans could greatly increase their chances of picking up those three seats by tweaking the lines.
Republicans only hold a two seat majority in Congress, and only a few dozen districts are competitive nationally. That’s why redistricting presents a golden opportunity for Republicans nationally, since Ohio’s new districts could give them a chance to add members in Congress.
Here’s more information about how redistricting works in Ohio and what I expect to happen as the process plays out for the rest of this year.
Ohio’s current map and the redistricting process
The state’s current map dates back to November 2021, when Gov. Mike DeWine signed it into law.
Under Ohio’s redistricting rules, the map expires in 2026 because it was passed by the Republican-controlled legislature without Democratic support. This means it has to be redrawn for next year’s election, giving Republicans another opportunity to redesign the districts in their favor.
It’s a common view among Republicans that state lawmakers will tinker with the competitive districts to make them more favorable to the GOP. The question is how aggressive they will get against political norms and court oversight that’s supposed to check partisan gerrymandering.
Sen. Bernie Moreno, a Republican, told Punchbowl News last month that he thinks Ohio should adopt a 12-3 map – that is 12 Republican districts and 3 Democratic ones. This would involve taking some voters in the Akron-based district currently represented by Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes, and shifting them to nearby Republican districts represented by Reps. Max Miller and Dave Joyce.
But Republicans are debating pursuing a 13-2 map – which would mean Ohio’s only Democratic districts would be in its two largest cities, Cleveland and Columbus.
A proposed Republican map that’s privately circulating audaciously links Cincinnati eastward with Portsmouth. This move would target Cincinnati Rep. Greg Landsman, whose current district is increasingly safe for Democrats. This would certainly provoke a lawsuit and likely would be tough to defend.
“I think instead of the “Snake by the Lake” you’d have to draw the “Sliver by the River,” said one Republican.
Ohio’s redistricting rules require maps passed without bipartisan support to not “unduly favor or disfavor” a political party or its incumbents. The rules for a Republican-only map are a little loose for geographical compactness, though, although it still requires them to “attempt” to make a geographically compact map.
What backstops are there against Republicans?
Theoretically, there are legal rules in Ohio that limit a majority party’s ability to gerrymander congressional districts. But the Ohio Supreme Court interprets those rules, and Republicans hold a 6-1 majority on the court. It’s a much different court than the 4-3 court that in 2022 found Ohio’s current congressional map to be illegally slanted toward Republicans. Some current Republican members in their past rulings have said their job isn’t to micromanage the legislative branch as it draws district lines.
That’s why the greatest limit on Republicans could end up being political ones. They will have to weigh questions like: How far are they willing to go? When do they think voters will get mad enough to spill over into other elections? What will leading figures such as Gov. Mike DeWine – who could veto a congressional map drawn by the legislature – think about all of this?
Meanwhile, Republicans will be under great pressure to create the most self-serving maps since control of Congress could be on the line.
Another limitation on Republicans could be the degree to which they need to protect their incumbents. Scrambling Southwest Ohio to maximize Republicans’ advantage could mean redrawing districts represented by Rep. Mike Turner or Warren Davidson.
There are always rumors that Turner might retire. If he does, Republicans won’t have to worry about saving him a seat.
Republicans also might be less sympathetic toward Davidson after Trump called for his ouster in retribution for Davidson’s vote against Trump’s signature federal spending bill. Not caring about Turner or Davidson, or any other incumbents for that matter, will give Republicans more flexibility to maximize their partisan advantage.
What Ohio’s newest U.S. Senator thinks about the upcoming mapmaking
On Wednesday, I asked a couple top Ohio Republicans what they’re thinking about this year’s process. U.S. Sen. Jon Husted, a Republican, quickly sidestepped the question, basically saying he’s staying in his own political lane.
“I’m no longer involved in that process,” Husted said. “My congressional district is the entire state.” Pressed further, he said he has no opinion about redistricting.
DeWine, who usually keeps his opinions close, said he hasn’t put great thought into redistricting yet.
“I still haven’t really switched over from the budget yet,” he said.
Dani Isaacsohn, a Cincinnati Democrat who’s the new minority leader in the Ohio House, said he hopes the next set of maps will be bipartisan.
“My basic approach will be consistent and clear, which is, we should have constitutional maps,” Isaacsohn said.
The redistricting process
Ohio’s redistricting rules set out three sets of deadlines that will fall later this year. The important one is Nov. 30, which is the final drop-dead deadline. For the entire month of November, the legislature will be legally allowed to pass a new map without Democratic support. But the lack of minority-party buy-in activates extra rules, including a legal clause that says the map can’t “unduly” favor Republicans or current members of Congress.
Before that, the General Assembly will have until Sept. 30 to pass a new map. Doing so during that phase requires a 60% vote from the House and Senate – something Republicans can do on their own, thanks to their supermajority. But the rules also require votes from at least half of the legislature’s Democrats, something Republicans seem unlikely to seek.
Then there’s a second deadline on Oct. 30. That month, the Ohio Redistricting Commission, a panel of five Republican officials and two Democrats, will be assembled and given time to come up with a map. Again, the commission can only approve something with Democratic support.