Ohio Democrats experienced a silver lining in what otherwise was a dark cloud of an election in 2022 when they won the state’s three competitive congressional districts, which were created following the redistricting reform voters approved in 2018.

Whether or not they can hold those seats this November could help decide which party controls Congress in January.

The three districts – Ohio’s 1st District, anchored by Cincinnati, the 9th District (Toledo) and the 13th District (Akron) – are an increasing rarity. Only 30 to 40 of the country’s 435 congressional districts are considered to be competitive, a result of gerrymandering and the increasing tendency of voters to live among people who think like them politically.

Republicans, meanwhile, hold just an eight-seat majority in the U.S. House, which explains the intense focus by both major parties on any potential pickup opportunities, as well as the focus on Issue 1, the Ohio ballot issue that could make more of Ohio’s 15 congressional seats winnable for Democrats if voters approve it and change how the state draws its political district maps.

The 9th District in Toledo is the most hotly contested of the three. It’s represented by longtime Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, who is one of five Democrats in Congress to represent a district that President Donald Trump won in 2020. 

The 13th District in Akron, meanwhile, is the most competitive on paper. Democratic President Joe Biden won it by fewer than three percentage points in 2020, while Republican Gov. Mike DeWine won it by nearly 15 points in 2022. Several political watchers in the district believe it’s the most likely of Ohio’s congressional districts to flip despite the relatively low level of local and national attention.

The 1st District is another Biden-DeWine district, although it’s viewed as trending much more strongly toward Democrats, thanks in part due to its concentration of suburban voters between Cincinnati and Dayton.

The fact that three state congressional races are competitive is remarkable, given the profoundly uncompetitive, Republican-drawn maps that were in place the previous decade prior to the reform. Voters are being asked to change those rules again via Issue 1, which would put a citizens’ panel in charge of drawing the lines, instead of the current panel of elected officials, while strengthening rules meant to make each party’s share of districts closer to their share of the statewide vote. How the maps look could affect the state’s congressional district mix, which otherwise has 10 safe Republican seats and two safe Democratic ones. 

Here’s more about each of this year’s competitive congressional districts in Ohio and the races to fill them.

Sykes was the top Democrat in the Ohio House when she moved up to Congress in 2022. She surprised some when she soundly defeated Republican Madison Gilbert Gesiotto by around 5 percentage points, improving on Biden’s three-point win in the district two years before. She’s now one of a handful of Black representatives to represent a majority-white district, a dynamic that was the subject of a June article from the New York Times. Her 13th District, redrawn to focus on Akron instead of its previous anchor in Youngstown, is the most competitive district in Ohio.

This year, Sykes is facing Kevin Coughlin, a former state legislator whose last elected job was Stow municipal court clerk in 2015. Republicans are hoping Coughlin proves to be a stronger candidate, although he’s struggled to raise money and isn’t a favorite of all state Republican insiders. Outside Republicans have begun to spend in the race though, recently reserving $5 million in ads to support Coughlin’s campaign, which didn’t release its first ad until this week. In a sign of increased outside focus on the race, America PAC, funded by billionaire Elon Musk, has disclosed spending $450,000 paying door-to-door canvassers in the race, including around $200,000 in the past couple weeks.

Several people close to the race described it as a toss-up, although it’s flown under the national radar. “This is a margin-of-error race,” said one Democrat close to the race. “Biden won it by 2. Trump could very well win it by 2 this time.” Another Republican in the district said Coughlin is campaigning heavily and that they view the race as a potential top pickup opportunity for the GOP. 

Sykes’ ads focus on kitchen-table issues like touting a bill she supported to eliminate “junk fees” on services such as concert tickets and funding for law enforcement. One ad shows Sykes, a former gymnast, flipping off a balance beam. The personal touch suggests her campaign is still trying to introduce her to the districts she represents, even though she comes from a prominent Akron political family. Skyes’ outside allies have criticized Coughlin for opposing abortion, a calling card for Democrats this year, which could hurt him in suburbs around Akron.

Coughlin and his allies, meanwhile, have run ads saying Sykes is more liberal than she lets on. Coughlin’s first ad doesn’t mention Sykes at all, instead blaming Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris for rising prices and illegal immigration. Like Republicans in the 2022 race, Coughlin also said during an Akron Press Club appearance this week that Sykes doesn’t live in the district, given her marriage to a Franklin County commissioner in Columbus, although Sykes is registered to vote in Akron and her campaign said she lives there. 

🗳️For more on this year’s November election, visit our Election Signals 2024 page.

The redesign of the 9th District, which dropped the “snake on the lake” that extended the district to Cleveland’ West Side, made Kaptur’s longtime safe Democratic seat winnable for Republicans. The dynamic is magnified by the emergence of Trump, who has done well in the area compared to past Republicans by winning over blue-collar union voters.

So defeating Kaptur, who’s held the seat since 1983, was a top priority for Republicans two years ago. But Kaptur ended up easily beating a weak candidate, J.R. Majewski, who alarmed Republicans by initially planning to run again this year but ultimately dropped out before the Republican primary election in March.

A last-minute recruit, state Rep. Derek Merrin, a Republican from rural Lucas County, ended up winning the nomination instead. Republicans hope Merrin will fare better by not having Majewski’s personal baggage, although his traditional brand of social and fiscal conservatism from his legislative career might not be the cleanest fit for the district. 

Republicans and Democrats have made the race a top target. The candidates and their allies have reserved $12 million worth of TV ads, according to Medium Buying, a political ad firm in Columbus. That’s a large number for a congressional race within a small media market, with the amount split roughly evenly between the two parties. Most nonpartisan analysts grade the race as “leans Democratic,” a view shared by several locals who spoke with Signal. 

Kaptur’s ads have tried to distance her from the national Democratic brand. One starts by criticizing “the far left” for poor Southern border security, and another touts Kaptur supporting penalties for hiring “illegals,” a Republican-friendly nomenclature. (Kaptur herself refers to them as “people here illegally.”) Kaptur also sprinkles in local issues, like touting her work helping block a proposed sale of the University of Toledo Medical Center in 2020 and her push for tariffs on imported solar panels to help protect locally manufactured ones. 

Pro-Merrin ads, meanwhile, have tried to tie Kaptur to national Democrats and blamed the Biden administration for inflation and illegal immigration. They’ve also cast Merrin, 38, as a fresh, young voice compared to the 78-year-old Kaptur. 

One local Republican said the district should favor Republicans, but Kaptur is helped in the district by her decades of constituent work. They said if the national GOP follows through on its plans to spend heavily in the race, that Merrin “has a chance. But he has an uphill battle just because of who Marcy is in the district.”

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Landsman, a former Cincinnati City Council member, won the district in 2022, defeating longtime Republican Rep. Steve Chabot by more than 5 percentage points. It was a major accomplishment for Democrats, who had been trying unsuccessfully to defeat Chabot for years as they watched the Cincinnati area grow less conservative.

The district grades as slightly Democratic, when compiling election results going back to 2016. But it’s probably bluer than that. President Joe Biden won the district by 8 percentage points in 2020, and voters there approved an abortion-rights amendment last November by 26 percentage points, according to data compiled by Andrew Green, who posts on X under the name Ohio Politics Guru.

Landsman is running for reelection from a position of strength. Sonza, a former county assistant prosecutor who was hired to run the county veterans services center in June, is well-regarded within the Ohio Republican party. But his campaign hasn’t raised enough money to be competitive. Landsman, meanwhile, has reserved hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of local TV ads while the GOP hasn’t put in outside money. Republicans nationally and around the state view the race as safely Democratic.