Rising optimism among small and middle market business leaders suggests growth for Ohio

Business optimism is returning for small and midsize business leaders at the start of 2026, fueling confidence and growth plans.

The 2026 Business Leaders Outlook survey, released in January by JPMorganChase reveals a turnaround from last June, when economic headwinds and uncertainty about shifting policies and tariffs caused some leaders to put their business plans on hold.

Midsize companies, who often find themselves more exposed to geopolitical shifts and policy changes, experienced a significant dip in business and economic confidence in June of 2025.

As they have become more comfortable with the complexities of today’s environment, we are seeing optimism rebounding in the middle market nationwide – an encouraging sign for growth, hiring, and innovation. Small businesses, meanwhile, maintained steady optimism throughout 2025, but they aren’t shielded from domestic concerns. Many cited inflation and wage pressures as the top challenges for 2026 and are taking steps to ensure their businesses are prepared for what’s ahead.

“Ohio business leaders continue to show determination and adaptability, even as they navigate a complex and evolving economic landscape. Their willingness to embrace new technologies and pursue growth opportunities speaks to the strength and ingenuity of our local business community, said Terrah Opferman, Region Manager for Michigan and Ohio, J.P. Morgan Commercial Banking. “I’m confident that this momentum will drive Ohio’s economy forward in 2026 and beyond.”

Overall, both small and midsize business leaders are feeling more confident to pursue growth opportunities, embrace emerging technologies and, in some cases, forge new strategic partnerships. That bodes well for entrepreneurs in Ohio. Here are a few other key findings from the Business Leaders Outlook about trends expected to drive activity in Ohio this year:

1. Ohio business leaders are more optimistic (46%) about the national economy than the rest of the country (39%) at large. Additionally, 43% of Ohio business leaders feel optimistic about the local economy.

2. For all middle market leaders surveyed, uncertainty remains an issue. Almost half (49%) of all midsize business leaders surveyed cited “economic uncertainty” as their top concern – even with an improved outlook from a few months ago. Revenue and sales growth was second at 33%, while tariffs and labor both were third at 31%.

3. And tariffs are impacting businesses costs. Sixty-four percent of midsize Ohio business leaders said tariffs have had a negative impact on the cost of doing business to some degree.

4. Despite challenges, leaders are bullish on their own enterprises. Though the overall outlook is mixed, 74% of all small business owners and 71% of all middle market companies surveyed are optimistic about their company’s prospects for 2026.

5. Big plans are on the horizon. Forty-one percent of Ohio midsize business leaders say they plan to expand to new domestic markets in 2026. Additionally, 59% of Ohio midsize businesses are considering M&A activity (compared to 39% nationally), while 41% plan to increase headcount.

The bottom line

Rebounding optimism among U.S. business leaders at the start of the year is setting the stage for an active 2026. With business leaders looking to implement ambitious growth plans that position themselves for the future, momentum in Ohio could be beneficial future goals for leaders looking to launch, grow or scale their business this year.

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