Thank you for reading our Weekly Chatter newsletter this year. Here are a few stories we’ll be watching in 2025.
Cleveland mayor’s race
Four years ago, a 33-year-old consultant named Justin Bibb announced he had raised $180,000 to run for mayor of Cleveland. He didn’t wait for Mayor Frank Jackson to close the door on a fifth term before getting into the race. That head start helped him slip past better known and more experienced opponents.
Four years later, Mayor Justin Bibb isn’t waiting for a reelection challenger to emerge. He has been holding small neighborhood meet-and-greets. He’s been raising money, too. By mid-2024, Bibb had more than $500,000 on hand. His next fundraising disclosure is due at the end of January.
We won’t try to predict how the race will go. Instead, here are a few questions about 2025 politics that we’re chewing on.
First, who? Republican Laverne Jones Gore said this month that she’ll challenge Bibb. But Council President Blaine Griffin and former state Sen. Nina Turner are the most-discussed potential challengers. Neither one has publicly or definitively ruled themselves in or out. The filing deadline isn’t until June 11, but a challenger would be wise to start raising money well before then.
Second, what tack might a challenger take against the mayor? Dig into him over the Cleveland Browns’ plan to move to Brook Park? Contest whether Bibb’s City Hall should get credit for slowing police attrition and falling crime? Make hay – either from the left or the right – about the slow progress of the police accountability measures he endorsed? Tap into frustration among pro-Palestinian activists over his decision not to sign a Gaza ceasefire resolution?
Third, who else wants a piece of the Cleveland mayor’s race? In 2021, multiple super PACs spent money trying to influence the conversation. Will supporters or opponents of Bibb launch third-party spending efforts this time around?
Fourth, where does Bibb fit into the prognostication about the future of the Ohio Democratic Party? Gov. Mike DeWine’s appointee to fill JD Vance’s U.S. Senate seat will have to run for the job in 2026. Plus, all of Ohio’s major statewide offices will be on the ballot in 2026, and Democrats will need to rustle up some candidates for governor on down.
Donald Trump’s ripple effect on Greater Cleveland
The second Trump administration is already the biggest national political story. But it’s a local story, too. Trump – and local Democratic leaders – will have key decisions to make that will be felt in Northeast Ohio. Here are a few that come to mind.
Cleveland’s consent decree: The city’s police reform deal with the U.S. Justice Department will turn 10 years old in May. In his first year as mayor, Bibb said he wanted to bring the consent decree to its conclusion. Will a Trump-appointed U.S. attorney and Civil Rights Division chief grant that wish?
The Trump administration did not scrap Cleveland’s consent decree the first time around in 2017. But Sen.-elect Bernie Moreno, who will play a role in recommending Ohio’s new U.S. attorneys, has said he wants the decree gone.
There’s one other unknown in the mix. How would U.S. District Judge Solomon Oliver, the Clinton appointee who oversees the consent decree, respond to a motion to terminate the deal?
Working with ICE: Leaders of Ohio cities and counties will face an important question when Trump takes office in January. How much should sheriffs and local police cooperate with Trump’s mass deportation plans?
If police discover that someone they’ve pulled over is in the country unlawfully, should they notify Immigration and Customs Enforcement? The City of Painesville wrestled with that question in 2017, when a city policy on ICE cooperation sparked lengthy debate.
The incoming Trump administration has signaled that it is paying attention to how local officials answer that question. Trump’s “border czar,” Thomas Homan, met with New York Mayor Eric Adams this month, where they reportedly agreed on deporting undocumented immigrants who had committed crimes.
Homan recently offered this message for Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson: “If he doesn’t want to help, get the hell out of the way.”
Federal employees: With 16,665 workers, the U.S. government is the sixth biggest employer in Northeast Ohio, according to data compiled by Crain’s Cleveland Business.
Greater Cleveland is home to a Coast Guard station, a NASA center, the military payroll office known as the Defense Finance Accounting Service, a U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs hospital and an Internal Revenue Service office. There’s a federal courthouse and a U.S. attorney’s office, not to mention local Social Security Administration offices.
It remains to be seen where Trump’s federal budget advisory group – led by billionaire Elon Musk and Ohio’s Vivek Ramaswamy – will cut costs. But we plan to keep an eye on the local impact of those decisions.
Redistricting and City Council races
Cleveland City Council is set to vote in January on a new 15-ward map. The map immediately raised questions about the political futures of four council members: Richard Starr, Rebecca Maurer, Anthony Hairston and Michael Polensek.
Starr and Maurer both have addresses in the proposed Ward 5. Same goes for Hairston and Polensek in the proposed Ward 10. Will 2025 see two East Side showdowns between incumbents, or will council members step aside for their colleagues?
Maurer told Signal Cleveland that the map appeared drawn “to prevent a race” – that is, to give her no path to victory. Polensek said he planned to pull petitions to run again, while also saying he’d make a decision about 2025 “with my people at some point in the near future.”
West Side council races are worth a watch, too. The proposed map creates a new Ward 11 that runs from Edgewater Park south to Old Brooklyn. The ward cuts through a diverse cross-section of the city. It is 29% Hispanic – the second-most Hispanic ward in the new map – and 27% African American, according to census data released by City Council.
On top of that, the proposed Ward 11 would be an open seat with no resident incumbent.
The proposed Ward 7 is another one to keep an eye on. This ward encompasses much of Detroit-Shoreway, Ohio City and Tremont. Currently, Kerry McCormack represents a substantial part of this territory on council. Whether he will run for another term has been a source of speculation for more than a year.
What else should we follow in 2025? Email me your ideas at [email protected].
